Telecom Ramblings

Ebay announced today that it plans an initial public offering for Skype in 2010.  This at least makes it unequivocally clear that Ebay is looking to divest itself of the internet voice phenomenon.  CEO John Donahue effectively admitted that they never should have bought it in the first place with this quote:

But it’s clear that Skype has limited synergies with eBay and PayPal. We believe operating Skype as a stand-alone publicly traded company is the best path for maximizing its potential.

In other words, it used to be a standalone company and it still ought to be a standalone company, Ebay paid far too much based on synergies that just weren’t there and never will be.  But an IPO?  I seriously doubt it will get that far.  [Read more →]

There was an article the other day by Jeffrey Kaplan on Seeking Alpha, asking the question “Can Telcos Dominate the Cloud Computing Industry?”  The question was prompted by a blog post from an AT&T exec.   My gut reaction to that title was “Hell no”.  There are good reasons why few if any telecom carriers are in the dedicated server business, and why there is a huge difference between telco colocation and carrier neutral colocation.   Processing bits and transporting bits are very, very different businesses; only a company like AT&T (NYSE:T, news, filings) that never saw a vertical it didn’t like would think they fit together well. [Read more →]

Over the weekend, the NY Times revealed that the dynamic duo of Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friis may be about to buy Skype back again.  When they sold it to Ebay in 2005 for what eventually amounted to $3.1B, it had 53M users.  Now, they hope to buy it back for around $1B when it has 405M users. Om Malik says Ebay should take the offer, and I tend to agree – it’s time for Ebay to admit they aren’t the right owner and never were.  You have to hand it to Zennstrom and Friis, they sold high and might soon buy back low.  Perhaps this is the turning point for them, where they see value in the running of a business rather than in creating it.   Or perhaps it is just that Joost is looking less and less disruptive, whereas Skype now has the scale to really do something and little real competition.   If it happens, the question then will become: just what do they intend to do with it? [Read more →]

Internet infrastructure and networks change so much, and the media reports on them are so sketchy, that it can be hard to really keep up with who does what and where they do it.  Paid services like those of Telegeography make a good living off of that ambiguity, but sometimes we don’t need that much power.  Simple, centralized repositories of public information like the metro fiber provider list I have been keeping and the CDN provider list Dan Rayburn keeps are a way of keeping track of a sector independent of the media and PR spin our world runs on nowadays.  Therefore, I will be adding additional lists here on Telecom Ramblings for the subjects I care about.  Today I am posting a listing [Read more →]

My 10 year old daughter returns with a new self-programmed holiday card, we will return to your regular programming tomorrow.

AT&T (NYSE:T, news, filings) won a victory yesterday in the deep south, they managed to convince the Alabama Senate to pass a bill ending regulation of phone services, both for home and business.  Apparently, it was being filibustered by one state sentator, Bobby Singleton, but he stepped out of the chamber and they pounced and approved it 19-8.  Sort of a Mr. Smith goes to Washington moment, but with a bathroom break.  What does it mean?  If it becomes law, landline rates will be deregulated just like wireless and voip.  The argument was that since AT&T has lost 10% of its landlines in the state to those services, sufficient competition exists and landlines were at a disadvantage.  [Read more →]

Tens of thousands of people in the Santa Clara area lost connectivity today, with fiber cuts in two locations.  Apparently, however, this was not the work of the usual wayward backhoe nor did any earthquake or other natural disaster strike.  Vandals seem to have actually opened two manholes, gone in and cut multiple fiberoptic cables of AT&T (NYSE:T, news, filings).  It’s no laughing matter, as evidenced by the $100K reward being offered by AT&T to catch the perpetrators. [Read more →]

In a release yesterday, glbc staked out its position regarding the federal stimulus money that will be funneled into improving broadband access.  The company wishes to help “by expanding its world-class fiber optic network to support ‘middle-mile’ facilities that connect rural last-mile broadband providers to the Internet backbone.”  Of course, Global Crossing’s network is not itself geared toward offering broadband access to consumers, nor even to reaching rural areas that happen to fall along it without help.  Their point is that a national fiber backbone is nevertheless an integral part of the process, and they stand ready to [Read more →]

According to Dan Rayburn, Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO, news, filings) is out in the market buying third party datacenter space. Why? To build its own content delivery network.  If one wants to compete with one’s customers, you would think last month’s very public entrance into the server market with its new Unified Computing System would suffice.   But now they are considering taking on Akamai as well? What gives?  Actually, there’s a perfectly logical reason. [Read more →]

Today q announced they have raised $750M, selling $810.5M in 8.375% notes due 2016, priced at about $0.925 on the dollar.  They had originally planned to raise just $300M, but apparently there was much more demand for the paper than anyone anticipated.  When coupled with the recent $220M expansion of its senior secured debt by Level 3 Communications (NYSE:LVLT, news, filings) on Monday, one has to wonder if the credit deep-freeze is over or at least melting just slightly here and there. [Read more →]

In response to my post Fiber Valuations – April 2009, a reader who goes by the moniker Homer made an interesting comment:

you might want to add an extra column with a measure of “% increase in value of common stock per unit increase in EV/EBITDA multiple”… this delta measure would tell your readers which stocks would benefit the most from a recovery of valuation multiples towards historical “normals”… equity investors would see where they would get the most leverage in such a recovery

Homer’s point is that the rise and fall of the market’s valuations of fiber-based telecoms does not translate into parallel stock price movements [Read more →]

In a surprise attack on Telstra’s dominance of the Australian telecom market, the Australian government announced a new initiative to bring 100Mbps FTTH to everyone.  Well, 90% anyway with the rest needing wireless or satellite presumably because they are out in the outback or close enough.  The network will be purely wholesale and no private owner will control more than 20%.  The government will own 51% while the network gets built over the next 7-8 years, by which time the government will have sold its share.  The total price tag? [Read more →]

SEACOM, the new undersea cable that will soon run the length of Africa’s east coast and connect to South Asia and Europe, has signed with Interoute for direct connectivity to Europe.  SEACOM has been making news lately, as they bring fiber ashore along the routes to places that have never had such connectivity.  Their website claims 93 days to completion, which suggest it will be in service sometime this summer.  To connect with Interoute, they will land in Marseilles, France.  Interoute has been looking southward quite a bit lately, adding undersea cable connectivity to [Read more →]

RCN Metro, the metro and regional fiber subsidiary of RCN Business (NASDAQ:RCNI, news, filings), announced today that they have built a new ethernet circuit for Lafayette College.  Lafayette needed diverse connectivity, preferably to New York to the east rather than over its existing routes to Philadelphia to the south.  RCN’s regional fiber through the area via utility rights of way rather to the east where everyone else has assets; I believe the fiber in question came from its Neon acquisition a few years ago. [Read more →]

Every quarter I like to take a look at where the sector stands in terms of its valuation of fiber assets.  One of the major metrics used to compare valuation amongst competitive telecoms is the ratio between Enterprise Value and EBITDA, or EV/EBITDA, which incorporates the company’s debt and ignores depreciation and amortization.  The latter are of course real costs, but they tend to be hard to compare against each other due to the distortions introduced over the last 10 years in the sector.  The economic environment of course has become so toxic, that the market value of the corporate debt in the sector is generally below par, and for accurate comparison that discount must be applied to its EV.  I have compiled the following list, which seeks to calculate (or estimate where necessary) the current EV/EBITDA ratios for publicly traded, competitive, fiber-based telecoms.  With no futher ado, here is the current spreadsheet: [Read more →]

In yet another financial transaction that few thought possible in this environment, Level 3 Communications (NYSE:LVLT, news, filings) has waved its magic wand and added $214M to its coffers.  The money comes via a second tranche for its senior secured credit facility, the balance of which previously stood at $1.4B and will now be $1.62B.  The interest will be at LIBOR+8.5% with a floor of 11.5%.  When interest rates go up, as they surely will, this rate will of course not look so cheap.  However, the money will help to further reduce the pressure on the company from debt maturities over the next few years.  [Read more →]

[TheJuice blogs about his financial models and projections for telecom companies, most frequently about Level 3 Communications.  If you have something to share on Telecom Ramblings, contact the webmaster]

Hello All. Attached are my updated models for Level 3 Communications (NYSE:LVLT, news, filings).

The first is my sense as to the numbers for the 2009.   Nothing special here, I’ve modeled a dip in Q1 and then we dig our way out [Read more →]

Tonight, the current contract between AT&T (NYSE:T, news, filings) and the Communications Workers of America expires, and I don’t think anyone really expects the two sides to agree to a new one before it does.  After all, that’s what deadlines are for right? (Just ask the FCC.)  Yep, we all get to watch yet another game of union chicken, and yet doesn’t it feel a bit scripted?  We get to watch them posture over tired old issues, then blame each other for not playing nice both before and after the inevitable short strike of a few days or hours, and finally [Read more →]

Wow!  I now hereby take the possible sale of the q longhaul network seriously.  Why?  Well, unlike all other such M&A rumors over the last year, this time the buzz generated was incredible – Telecom Ramblings had its biggest traffic day ever, and the audience came largely from within the industry itself.  That doesn’t mean it is true obviously, but it does mean that a heck of a lot of people who may know things are taking it seriously, so I will too.  So today let’s look at a few other details. [Read more →]

Level 3 alumni and blogging neighbor Brady Rafuse has a new gig lined up.  He will be taking over as CEO at euNetworks.  Brady of course headed Level 3’s European operations for years, a move into a CEO position in the same market is a natural step forward.  Good luck Brady!  No word yet on whether his blog will continue in its present form, but perhaps he will take a page from former colleague Dan Caruso amongst others and make his blog into a valuable communication tool, the voice of euNetworks? [Read more →]

According to several sources, q is actively seeking a buyer for its longhaul network.  I’ve lost track of how many times this has been rumored over the last 5 years, is it an even dozen yet?  But anyway, the rumored price is in the $2-3B range, and although it isn’t clear just how much of Qwest would be part of such a deal it surely isn’t doing over $2B in revenues, nor is that part likely to have EBITDA above the 10-20% range.  Hence, the EV/EBITDA ratio for such a sale would probably be well above current market valuations.  Let’s take a look at the potential suitors in some detail: [Read more →]

In an interesting announcement this morning, Open Range Communication will be leveraging the extended on-net services of Level 3 Communications (NYSE:LVLT, news, filings) to provide WiMAX to rural communities.  Open Range has a bundle of funding ready to go, $100M from JP Morgan and another $267M in subsidized government loans.  Level 3 will be providing the networking infrastructure for their effort to hook up 500 communities in 17 states.  WiMAX has always seemed to me to have the clearest potential where its wide range comes into play, in other words for rural areas it seems like a [Read more →]

As almost anyone might have expected, Internap Network Services (NASDAQ:INAP, news, filings) last night announced that 10% of its workforce will be looking for work. These days, new management nearly always means layoffs, and with Eric Cooney taking over from Jim Deblasio as CEO two weeks ago it was just a matter of time. In this case, it is mainly back office staff positions and apparently several senior management positions. Those management guys were probably leaving anyway, but the positions won’t be re-filled I guess. The cost savings will be approximately $5M annually, and the company will take a $1.2M charge in the 2nd quarter for severance and such. [Read more →]