Back in early may, I posted my Level 3 spreadsheet. It is a detailed model that allows study of trends within Level 3’s business groups and the effects on margins, ebitda, and cashflow. Well, Q2 ends on Monday, which means that it is prediction time prior to the earnings call in 3-4 weeks. And in preparation for that event, I am posting the latest version of my model.
This time, the assumptions I am making are not merely placeholders, but my own tentative predictions.
There are two versions:
- The Interactive Model – for those with IE and the Office plugin. The assumptions can be changed and the effects seen on each following sheet.
- The Noninteractive Model – for those with Firefox or other browsers etc. This is read only, unfortunately.
For those who aren’t interested in the model, but who are interested in my predictions, here you go:
| Core Revenue | 970M |
| – Wholesale Network | 363M |
| – Wholesale Voice | 183M |
| – Enterprise | 244M |
| – Content | 102M |
| – Europe | 78M |
| – Communications Revenue | 1.055B |
| Communications Gross Margin | 58.1% |
| SG&A (ex stock comp) | 384M |
| Ebitda | 229M |
| CashFlow | roughly breakeven |
| EPS | -0.10 |
Of course, I’d love to see better, but I still consider Q2 a waiting quarter. Basically they need to show a) cost controls, and b) hints of revenue growth.
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rather than show b) HINTS of revenue growth, why not show the REAL thing….
It’s good analysis.
Your readers would appreciate your revealing your positions in all these companies you cover, I guess.
Thanks for all the good work.