Last year was a good one for Ciena, and they kicked off their fiscal 2014 with a strong first quarter. Analysts were a bit miffed by guidance, but it looks overblown to me. Here are their numbers in some context:
| $ in millions | FQ1/13 | FQ2/13 | FQ3/13 | FQ4/13 | FQ1/14 | FQ2/14 (guidance) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -Converged Packet-Optical | 240.0 | 294.3 | 302.0 | 350.9 | 333.4 | |
| -Packet Networking | 45.8 | 54.2 | 61.6 | 61.2 | 51.7 | |
| -Optical Transport | 57.6 | 57.4 | 66.2 | 52.6 | 40.1 | |
| -Software and Services | 109.7 | 101.8 | 108.6 | 118.7 | 108.5 | |
| Revenue | 453.1 | 507.7 | 538.4 | 583.4 | 533.7 | 540-570 |
| Adj. OPEX | 176.6 | 197.4 | 190.4 | 210.5 | 199.8 | ~210 |
| Adj. GM% | 44.6% | 42.5% | 43.6% | 40.8 | 43.4% | low 40%s |
| Adj. EPS | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.13 |
Revenues were on the higher side of guidance and right about where everyone thought they’d be. But lower OPEX costs helped on the bottom line, as earnings per share came in six cents ahead of the street. Forward guidance straddled the $560M or so analysts had in mind, but the midpoint was a bit lower. Seems to me a bit of conservative forecasting ought to be part of the equation regardless.
Converged packet-optical’s contribution rose to 63% of revenues, as their older optical transport product lines continued to fall off.
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