Welcome back! 2013 has begun, and that means it’s time to take the temperature of the wireline M&A market in the US, just as we do every year at this time. You saw me make a few predictions on New Years’ Eve, but now it’s time for the more general question: Who are the most likely consolidators of fiber networks this year? You can pick up to three:
If I’ve missed anyone of substantial size that ought to be on this list, let me know. I think it’s fair to say that Zayo ran away with the M&A ball in 2012, and in fact in last year’s poll Zayo was the top pick by a clear margin. The rest of the top 10 (tw telecom, Level 3, Earthlink, Windstream, Centurylink, AboveNet, AT&T, Verizon, and Integra Telecom) made no moves at all in 2012. But it’s a whole new year now.
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An interesting dichotomy is taking place with Lvlt and twtc the past few days.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LVLT&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=twtc
Level 3’s market cap is now trumping twtc’s by more than 31 percent–considering the P/S ratios with twtc still significantly ahead, this is a beginning to something more favorable–making some kind of deal in the near term more plausible if of course they turn their heads away from Europe and Colt in favor of something in their own back yard.
Hmm, maybe Big Jim will start the New Year off with a one, two punch instead by rolling them both up. 🙂
Interesting premise, financially may be a challenge but integrating on 2 continents really represents individual projects and not 2 simultaneious integrations based on geography and corporate structure, in other words may not scare them as much as 2 US companies at same time.
How about TWTC in 2013 and XO in 2014.